Momentum is a killer.
It seems as if every year a movie starts snowballing around Academy Awards time, pushing past previous front-runners to become an unstoppable Oscars force. Which is another way of saying that “The Artist” is going to win a lot of awards this year.
I liked the film, a lot. But I think “The Descendants” was better. Trouble is, no one asked me. So when it comes to making Oscar picks, you’ve got to go with your head, not your heart.
Dang it.
As always, keep in mind that my picks are nothing more than somewhat-educated guesses, far from guarantees. In other words, don’t come crying to me when you lose your Oscar-party pool. Because I’ll probably be crying already.
Best picture
“The Artist”
“The Descendants”
“Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close”
“The Help”
“Hugo”
“Midnight in Paris”
“Moneyball”
“The Tree of Life”
“War Horse”
Will win: “The Artist”
Should win: “The Descendants.”
Pretty much a sure thing. I can’t see anything derailing Michel Hazanavicius’ loving, lovely ode to the transition from silent film to talkies, even if “The Descendants” was better. (“The Tree of Life”was, too, but, you know, good luck on that front. Too weird for mainstream tastes.) At least “The Artist” is a really, really good movie, which eases the sting considerably.
Wild card: “Hugo,” another embrace of film and its beginnings — and one directed by Martin Scorsese. If there’s going to be an upset, it’s probably this.
Best actor
Demian Bechir, “A Better Life”
George Clooney, “The Descendants”
Jean Dujardin, “The Artist”
Gary Oldman, “Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy”
Brad Pitt, “Moneyball”
Will win: Dujardin.
Should win: Clooney.
Dujardin isn’t a sure thing — Clooney is a well loved guy in Hollywood (and everywhere else), and he showed plenty of depth as a land baron in Hawaii going through all sorts of losses. But Dujardin does a little of everything in his portrayal of a fading silent-movie star: sing, dance, emote, laugh, cry — everything but talk (at least until the very end). Clooney’s performance is much more complex, for what that’s worth. Which may be: not much.
Wild card: Um, Pitt? Oldman? It’s going to be Dujardin or Clooney, though the other guys were good, as well.
Best actress
Glenn Close, “Albert Nobbs”
Viola Davis, “The Help”
Rooney Mara, “The Girl With the Dragon
Tattoo”
Meryl Streep, “The Iron Lady”
Michelle Williams, “My Week With Marilyn”
Will win: Davis.
Should win: Davis.
Davis always gives powerhouse performances, in roles large and small. She was great as a domestic worker in the 1960s, enduring racism while raising the children of White families. “The Help” was a well-received film, which always helps, and Davis was the best thing in it. The movie, although popular, is overrated. But Davis’ performance is not.
Wild card: Streep, of course. I mean, she’s Meryl Streep, and she was picture perfect as Margaret Thatcher. If you’re going to pick someone else on the list, Williams is the most deserving for her portrayal — not her impersonation — of Marilyn Monroe.
Best supporting actor
Kenneth Branagh, “My Week With Marilyn”
Jonah Hill, “Moneyball”
Nick Nolte, “Warrior”
Christopher Plummer, “Beginners”
Max von Sydow, “Extremely Loud & Incredibly
Close”
Will win: Plummer.
Should win: Plummer.
Plummer was great as an elderly man who comes out as gay after his wife dies, then learns he is dying of cancer. It was a tricky role — balancing joy and devastation, with a dollop of camp thrown in here and there — yet Plummer played it perfectly. His long, distinguished career doesn’t hurt his chances, either.
Wild card: There isn’t one. Plummer will win, hands down — he’s the closest thing to a lock on this list. That said, Hill was really good as the Yale geek who helped revolutionize the way baseball players are evaluated.
Best supporting actress
Bérénice Bejo, “The Artist”
Jessica Chastain, “The Help”
Melissa McCarthy, “Bridesmaids”
Janet McTeer, “Albert Nobbs”
Octavia Spencer, “The Help”
Will win: Spencer.
Should win: Spencer.
It’s tempting to link her portrayal of a feisty maid with Davis’ performance, but that would be inaccurate. Davis was all about stern dignity, and Spencer was much more in-your-face — and a lot funnier, too, providing comic relief as well as a stick in the eye of the racist establishment. And will you ever think about pie the same way again?
Wild card: Bejo, if “The Artist” gets on a roll. And a win by McCarthy would be a crowd-pleaser. Spencer is the overwhelming favorite, but this is the category most given to upsets.
Best director
Michel Hazanavicius, “The Artist”
Alexander Payne, “The Descendants”
Martin Scorsese, “Hugo”
Woody Allen, “Midnight in Paris”
Terrence Malick, “Tree of Life”
Will win: Hazanavicius.
Should win: Payne.
There’s likely no stopping the man who wrote and directed what clearly is the best-loved film of the year. And it’s hard to deny the creative force behind such a charming look at movies. He works in blackand- white and without sound, which one assumes increases the degree of difficulty for any director working after 1930 or so. It’s just the year of “The Artist,” and Hazanavicius is the artist behind it.
Wild card: Malick, although that’s probably wishful thinking. His film is certainly the most challenging of the bunch. That’s never been a strong point with academy voters, however. Still, Malick has a sterling reputation in Hollywood. Then again, so does Allen. Really, if Hazanavicius wasn’t such a strong favorite, this could be anyone’s category to win.
